Research Article
Open Access Peer-reviewed

Inflation and Stock Market Returns Volatility: Evidence from the Nigerian Stock Exchange 1995Q1-2016Q4: An E-GARCH Approach

Joseph Tarza Sokpo1, Paul Terhemba Iorember1,, Terzungwe Usar2

1Benue State University Makurdi, Nigeria

2University of Ibadan, Ibadan-Nigeria

International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management. 2017, 5(2), 69-76. DOI: 10.12691/ijefm-5-2-6
Published online: November 10, 2017

Abstract

The paper investigated the effect of inflation on stock market returns on the Nigerian stock exchange market, employing a volatility modeling approach. Using monthly data on stock market returns and consumer price index inflation rate, the paper employed GARCH and E-GARCH volatility modeling techniques for analysis. The study found that CPI inflation is not an important variable in explaining stock market return volatility in Nigeria. The E-GARCH model did not find existence of asymmetry in the stock return series; that is good news and bad news have identical impact on stock returns in Nigeria. The GARCH model show high persistence in the stock returns series, though a shock to stock returns has only a temporary impact.

Keywords:

inflation, stock market returns, Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (E-GARCH)
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