, Julien Adounkpe1, Moustapha Tall1, 3, Ernest Amoussou4, Kossi Atchonouglo2, Muhammad Mumtaz51West Africa Science Service Centre on Climate change and Adapted Land Use, WASCAL-Climate Change and Water Resources, University of Abomey Calavi, 03 BP 526 Cotonou, Benin
2Faculty of Sciences, University of Lomé, Po. Box 1515 Lomé, Togo
3Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère et de l'Océan, Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, BP 5085, Dakar, Senegal
4Laboratoire Pierre PAGNEY, Climat, Eau, Ecosystème et Développement (LACEEDE), 03 BP1122, Cotonou, Bénin
5Department of Management Sciences, the University of Haripur, Pakistan
Climate change impacts considerably on water balance components and needs to be evaluated through trend analysis or climate models scenarios extremes. The objective of this paper is to perform non-parametric Mann Kendall (MK) trend analysis on historical hydro-climatic data (1961-2016), to validate an ensemble climate model and to compute temperature and rainfall extremes indices. The climate indices are evaluated using MK test and annual trend analysis for two future scenarios (2020- 2045) over Mono River Basin (MRB) in Togo. Results show positive and negative trends of hydro-climatic data over MRB from 1961 to 2016. The average temperature increases significantly in most of the stations while a negative non-significant trend of rainfall is noticed. Meanwhile, the discharge presents a significant seasonal and annual trend Corrokope, Nangbéto and Athiémé gauge stations. Validation of the ensemble climate models reveals that the model under-estimates observations at Sokode, Atkakpamé and Tabligbo stations, however linear regression and spatial correlation coefficients are higher than 0.6. Moreover, the percentage of bias between climate model and observations are less than 15% at most of the stations. Finally, the computation of extreme climate indices under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios shows a significant annual trend of some extreme climate indices of rainfall and temperature at selected stations between 2020 and 2045 in the MRB. Therefore, relevant governmental politics are needed to elaborate strategies and measures to cope with projected climate changes impacts in the country.
| [1] | IPCC Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Technical Report; Core Writing Team, R.K.P. and L.A.M. (eds.)]., Ed.; IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 2014. |
| [2] | Koubodana, H.D. Mecanismes de connexions entre les modes de varaibilités internannuelle equatorial et meridien de l’Atlantique tropical, These de Master, Chaire Internationale en Physique Mathématique et Applications (CIPMA-Chaire UNESCO), Université d’Abomey-Calavi (UAC), Benin, Soutenu en Octobre 2015, 2015. |
| [3] | Yan, T.; Bai, Z. Spatial and Temporal Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, and Streamflow in the Miyun Reservoir Basin of China. Water 2017, 9, 78.View Article |
| [4] | Oguntunde, P.G.; Abiodun, B.J.; Lischeid, G. Rainfall trends in Nigeria , 1901 - 2000. J. Hydrol. 2011, 411, 207-218.View Article |
| [5] | Oguntunde, P.G.; Friesen, J.; Giesen, N. Van De; Savenije, H.H.G. Hydroclimatology of the Volta River Basin in West Africa: Trends and variability from 1901 to 2002. Phys. Chem. Earth, Parts A/B/C 2006, 31, 1180-1188.View Article |
| [6] | Yabi, I.; Afouda, F. Extreme rainfall years in Benin ( West Africa ). Quat. Int. 2012, 262, 39-43.View Article |
| [7] | Mishra, A.K.; Singh, V.P. A review of drought concepts. J. Hydrol. 2010, 391, 202-216.View Article |
| [8] | Regh, T.; Bossa, A.Y.; Diekkrüger, B. Scenario-based simulations of the impacts of rainfall variability and management options on maize production in Benin. African J. Agric. Res. 2014, 9, 3393-3410. |
| [9] | Nicholson, S.E. The West African Sahel: A Review of Recent Studies on the Rainfall Regime and Its Interannual Variability. ISRN Meteorol. 2013, 2013, 32 pages.View Article |
| [10] | Ciais, P.; Sabine, C.; Bala, G.; Bopp, L.; Brovkin, V.; Canadell, J.; Chhabra, A.; DeFries, R.; Galloway, J.; Heimann, M. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. K., Tignor, M., Allen, SK, Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., Midgley, PM, Eds 2013. |
| [11] | Navarro-Racines, C.E.; Tarapues-Montenegro, J.E.; Ramírez-Villegas, J.A. Bias-correction in CCAFS Climate poral: Description of methodologies; Cali, Colombia., 2015; |
| [12] | Berg, P.; Feldmann, H.; Panitz, H.-J. Bias correction of high resolution regional climate model data. J. Hydrol. 2012, 448-449, 80-92.View Article |
| [13] | Maraun, D. Bias Correction, Quantile Mapping, and Downscaling: Revisiting the Inflation Issue. J. Clim. 2013, 26, 2137-2143.View Article |
| [14] | Haerter, J.O.; Hagemann, S.; Moseley, C.; Piani, C. Climate model bias correction and the role of timescales. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 15, 1065-1079.View Article |
| [15] | Berg, P.; Feldmann, H.; Panitz, H. Bias correction of high resolution regional climate model data. J. Hydrol. 2012, 448-449, 80-92.View Article |
| [16] | Teutschbein, C.; Seibert, J. Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and evaluation of different methods. J. Hydrol. 2012, 456-457, 12-29.View Article |
| [17] | Onyutha, C.; Tabari, H.; Rutkowska, A.; Nyeko-Ogiramoi, P.; Willems, P. Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods for climate change rainfall projections over the Lake Victoria basin considering CMIP3 and CMIP5. J. hydro-environment Res. 2016, 12, 31-45.View Article |
| [18] | Gocic, M.; Trajkovic, S. Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen’ s slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Glob. Planet. Change 2013, 100, 172-182.View Article |
| [19] | Gosling, S.N.; Taylor, R.G.; Arnell, N.W.; Todd, M.C. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 15, 279-294.View Article |
| [20] | Diallo, I.; Sylla, M.B.; Camara, M.; Gaye, A.T. Interannual variability of rainfall over the Sahel based on multiple regional climate models simulations. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2012, 1-12.View Article |
| [21] | Amoussou, E.; Osseni, A.A.; Totin, H.S. V; Lange, U.; Preuss, S. Hydroclimatic variability and flood risk on Naglanou and Akissa forests areas in Mono River Delta (West Africa). Int. J. Biodivers. Conserv. 2017, 9, 212-223.View Article |
| [22] | Lawin, A.E.; Lamboni, B.; Manirakiza, C.; Kamou, H. Future Extremes Temperature: Trends and Changes Assessment over the Mono River Basin, Togo (West Africa). J. Water Resour. Prot. 2019, 11, 82-98.View Article |
| [23] | Lawin, A.E.; Hounguè, N.R.; Biaou, C.A.; Badou, D.F. Statistical Analysis of Recent and Future Rainfall and Temperature Variability in the Mono River Watershed (Benin, Togo). Climate 2019, 7, 8.View Article |
| [24] | Zhang, X.; Feng, Y.; Chan, R. Introduction to RClimDex v1 . 9; Climate Research Division Environment Canada Downsview, Ontario Canada, 2018. |
| [25] | Robson, A.J.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Robson, A.J. Change detection in hydrological records - a review of the methodology. Hydrol. Sci. Journal-journal Des Sci. Hydrol. 2004, 49, 7-19.View Article |
| [26] | Wilson, D.; Hisdal, H.; Lawrence, D. Has streamflow changed in the Nordic countries? - Recent trends and comparisons to hydrological projections. J. Hydrol. 2010, 394, 334-346.View Article |
| [27] | Adeyeri, O.E.; Lawin, A.E.; Laux, P.; Ishola, K.A.; Ige, S.O. Analysis of climate extreme indices over the Komadugu-Yobe basin, Lake Chad region: Past and future occurrences. Weather Clim. Extrem. 2019, 23, 21.View Article |
| [28] | Houngue, R.; Lawin, E.; Moumouni, S.; Afouda, A.A. Change in Climate Extremes and Pan Evaporation Influencing Factors over Ouémé Delta in Bénin. Climate 2019, 7, 1-22.View Article |
| [29] | PCCP PROGRAMME PCCP -From Potential Conflict to Cooperation Potential: cas du basin du Mono (Togo-Benin); Lomé-Togo, 2008; |
| [30] | Amoussou, E. Variabilité pluviométrique et dynamique hydro-sédimentaire du bassin versant du complexe fluvio-lagunaire Mono-Ahémé-Couffo, These de doctorat de l’Université de Bourgogne - Centre de Recherches de Climatologie (CRC) CNRS - UMR 5210, soutenu le 11 mai 2010, 2010. |
| [31] | Amoussou, E.; Tramblay, Y.; Totin, H.S. V; Mahé, G.; Camberlin, P. Dynamique et modélisation des crues dans le bassin du Mono à Nangbéto (Togo / Bénin). Hydrol. Sci. J. 2014, 59, 2060-2071.View Article |
| [32] | Koubodana, H.D.; Diekkrüger, B.; Näschen, K.; Adounkpe, J.; Atchonouglo, K. Impact of the Accuracy of Land Cover Data Sets on the Accuracy of Land Cover Change Scenarios in the Mono River Basin, Togo, West Africa. Int. J. Adv. Remote Sens. GIS 2019, 8, 3073-3095.View Article |
| [33] | FAO FAO Statistical Yearbook 2012 Africa: Food and Agriculture; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Regional Office for Africa Accra, 2012; ISBN 9789251074268. |
| [34] | SAWES Etudes relatives a la promotion de trois (3) nouvelles organisations de bassins transfrontaliers en Afrique de l’ouest Cas du schéma du Bassin du Mono; Aougadougou, Burkina Faso, 2011; |
| [35] | Ficchì, A.; Perrin, C.; Andréassian, V. Impact of temporal resolution of inputs on hydrological model performance: An analysis based on 2400 flood events. J. Hydrol. 2016, 538, 454-470.View Article |
| [36] | Hargreaves, G.H.; Samani, Z.A. Estimating potential evapotranspiration. J. Irrig. Drain. Div. 1982, 108, 225-230. |
| [37] | Tabari, H.; Aeini, A.; Talaee, P.H.; Some, B.S. Spatial distribution and temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Hydrol. Process. 2012, 26, 500-512.View Article |
| [38] | Xie, H.; Longuevergne, L.; Ringler, C.; Scanlon, B.R. Calibration and evaluation of a semi-distributed watershed model of Sub-Saharan Africa using GRACE data. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2012, 16, 3083-3099.View Article |
| [39] | Djaman, K.; Sharma, V.; Daran, R.R.; Koudahe, K.; Irmak, S.; Amouzou, K.A.; Rudnick, D.R.; Sogbedji, J.M. Spatial and Temporal Variation in Precipitation in Togo. Int. J. Hydrol. 2017, 1, 1-10.View Article |
| [40] | Wu, T.; Song, L.; Li, W.; Wang, Z.; Zhang, H.; Xin, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, L.; Li, J.; Wu, F. An overview of BCC climate system model development and application for climate change studies. J. Meteorol. Res. 2014, 28, 34-56.View Article |
| [41] | Giorgetta, M.A.; Jungclaus, J.; Reick, C.H.; Legutke, S.; Bader, J.; Böttinger, M.; Brovkin, V.; Crueger, T.; Esch, M.; Fieg, K. Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 2013, 5, 572-597.View Article |
| [42] | Watanabe, S.; Hajima, T.; Sudo, K.; Nagashima, T.; Takemura, T.; Okajima, H.; Nozawa, T.; Kawase, H.; Abe, M.; Yokohata, T. MIROC-ESM 2010: Model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments. Geosci. Model Dev. 2011, 4, 845.View Article |
| [43] | Heuzé, C.; Heywood, K.J.; Stevens, D.P.; Ridley, J.K. Southern Ocean bottom water characteristics in CMIP5 models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2013, 40, 1409-1414.View Article |
| [44] | Thiessen, A.H. Precipitation averages for large areas. Mon. Weather Rev. 1911, 39, 1082-1089.View Article |
| [45] | Memarian, H.; Balasundram, S.K.; Talib, J.B.; Sood, A.M.; Abbaspour, K.C. Trend analysis of water discharge and sediment load during the past three decades of development in the Langat basin, Malaysia Trend analysis of water discharge and sediment load during the past. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2012, 57, 1207-1222.View Article |
| [46] | Salmi, T.; Määttä, A.; Anttila, P.; Ruoho-Airola, T.; Amnell, T. Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates-the Excel template application MAKESENS; Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI): Helsinki, Finland, 2002; |
| [47] | Akpovi, K.; Antwi, E.O.; Kabo-bah, A. Impacts of Rainfall Variability , Land Use and Land Cover Change on Stream Flow of the Black Volta. Hydrology 2016, 3, 1-24.View Article |
| [48] | Attogouinon, A.; Lawin, A.E.; M’Po, Y.N.T.; Houngue, R. Extreme Precipitation Indices Trend Assessment over the Upper Oueme River Valley-(Benin). Hydrology 2017, 4, 36.View Article |
| [49] | Rana, A.; Foster, K.; Bosshard, T.; Olsson, J.; Bengtsson, L. Regional Studies Impact of climate change on rainfall over Mumbai using Distribution-based Scaling of Global Climate Model projections. J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud. 2014, 1, 107-128.View Article |
| [50] | Mann, H.B. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econom. J. Econom. Soc. 1945, 245-259.View Article |
| [51] | Kendall, M.G. Rank Correlation Methods, Charles Griffin, London (1975). Google Sch. 1975. |
| [52] | Sen, A.K.; Niedzielski, T. Statistical Characteristics of Riverflow Variability in the Odra River Basin , Southwestern Poland. Polish J. environement Stud. 2010, 19, 387-397. |
| [53] | Gilbert, R.O. Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring; John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 605 Third Avenue, New York NY 10158M12. (212)850-6011, Fax (212) 850-6008, 1987; |
| [54] | Anderson, M.G.; Bates, P.D. Model Validation. Perspect. Hydrol. Sci. John Wiley Sons 2001. |
| [55] | Christensen, J.H.; Kuhry, P. High‐resolution regional climate model validation and permafrost simulation for the East European Russian Arctic. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2000, 105, 29647-29658.View Article |
| [56] | Moriasi, D.N.; Arnold, J.G.; Van Liew, M.W.; Binger, R.L.; Harmel, R.D.; Veith, T.L.; Liew, M.W. Van; Bingner, R.L.; Harmel, R.D.; Veith, T.L. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Am. Soc. Agric. Biol. Eng. 2007, 50, 885-900.View Article |
| [57] | Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S.I. Observation-based gridded runoff estimates for Europe (E-RUN version 1.1). Earth Syst. Sci. Data 2016, 8, 279-295.View Article |
| [58] | Maraun, D.; Wetterhall, F.; Ireson, A.M.; Chandler, R.E.; Kendon, E.J.; Widmann, M.; Brienen, S.; Rust, H.W.; Sauter, T.; Al., E.; et al. Precipitation downscaling under climate change. Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user. Rev. Geophys. 2010, 48, 1-39.View Article |
| [59] | Martinez-Casanovas, A. A spatial information technology approach for the mapping and quantification of gully erosion. Catena 2003, 50, 293-308.View Article |
| [60] | Laurent, H.; Jobard, I.; Toma, A. Validation of satellite and ground based estimates of precipitation over the Sahel. Atmos. Res. 1998, 47-48, 651-670.View Article |
| [61] | Dashkhuu, D.; Pil, J.; Ahn, J.; Lee, W. Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes over Mongolia. Weather Clim. Extrem. 2015, 8, 26-33.View Article |
| [62] | Halimatou, T.; Kakifa, T.; Kyei-baffour, N. Assessment of changing trends of daily precipitation and temperature extremes in Bamako and Segou in Mali from 1961-2014. Weather Clim. Extrem. J. 2017, 18, 8-16.View Article |
| [63] | Oguntunde, P.G.; Abiodun, B.J. The impact of climate change on the Niger River Basin hydroclimatology, West Africa. Clim. Dyn. 2013, 40, 81-94.View Article |
| [64] | Kasei, R.; Diekkrüger, B.; Leemhuis, C. Drought frequency in the Volta Basin of West Africa. Sustain. Sci. 2010, 5, 89-97.View Article |
| [65] | Reichler, T.; Kim, J. Uncertainties in the climate mean state of global observations , reanalyses , and the GFDL climate model. J. Geophys. Res. 2008, 113, 1-13.View Article |
| [66] | Lahsen, M. Seductive Simulations? Uncertainty Distribution Around Climate Models. Soc. Stud. Sci. 2005, 35, 895-922.View Article |
| [67] | New, M.; Hewitson, B.; Stephenson, D.B.; Tsiga, A.; Kruger, A.; Manhique, A.; Gomez, B.; Coelho, C.A.S.; Masisi, D.N.; Kululanga, E.; et al. Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa. J. Geophys. Res. 2006, 111, 1-11.View Article |
| [68] | Akinsanola, A.A.; Zhou, W. Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models. Clim. Dyn. 2018, 12pp.View Article |
